I had been working on a dump-detection algorithm because normal margin flipping was getting squeezed hard by OSRS market automation and tighter spreads.
Dumps are a different kind of opportunity. You are not just buying inside today's margin; you are trying to catch a disrupted market before it recovers.
What counts as a dump
A dump happens when a bot or player offloads a large amount of an item and temporarily destabilizes the market. The sale can show up as aggressive undercutting, abnormal volume, or both.
The opportunity comes from the recovery window: buy after the disruption, then sell if the market normalizes.
What the algorithm is trying to do
- Spot abnormal volume and price disruption close to when they happen.
- Filter out noisy moves that look dramatic but are unlikely to produce useful recovery profit.
- Surface the opportunity quickly enough that an email alert is still actionable.
- Show recovery profit so users understand the upside from a rebound, not just the current margin.
Why it is tricky
The model has to balance quantity and quality. Too loose, and it over-fires with false positives. Too strict, and it misses the events people actually want to see.
The presentation matters too. A dump alert is time-sensitive, so the email and item card need to explain the opportunity quickly without pretending the recovery is guaranteed.
This was still beta work at the time, but the core direction was becoming clear: dumps need their own detection, display, and profit language.