Yes, another update! We’ve been on a winning streak this month. First came smarter suggestions, then item pages and tested Dump Alerts. We know that’s a lot of posts. But each change had to beat the last version on real Grand Exchange trades before we shipped it, and this one is a big one.
Trader is our paid guide to flipping. It picks trades, then walks you through each offer. This time we tested what happens after you list a sale. We found that how you sell makes a big difference, and that Trader was too quick to cut your price. This update fixes that. Here’s what’s new:
Sales get time. Trader now leaves a sale at its price for 8 hours before it suggests a lower one.
No selling at a loss to chase a price. After 8 hours, Trader’s new price is no lower than break-even: what you paid, after tax.
Still quick when it matters. If your sell price would lose money and the market allows a higher one, Trader tells you right away.
One less label. We removed the “Timing Pick” label. Our tests showed the signal behind it didn’t predict profit.
Results
We followed every trade Trader picked over a month of real Grand Exchange trades, from the first buy until the last item sold. “Before” is how we measured Trader in our earlier posts: each sale held for 4 hours, then anything left sold at the market price.
| Result | Now | Before |
|---|---|---|
| Trader: 10M budgetAverage profit over 4 hours | 229K GP | 155K GP |
| Trader: 10M budget4-hour periods that made money | 99% | 91% |
| Trader: 10M budgetWorst single 4 hours | 45K loss | 161K loss |
| Trader: 50M budgetAverage profit over 4 hours | 254K GP | 173K GP |
| Trader: 50M budget4-hour periods that made money | 99% | 93% |
| Trader: 200M budgetAverage profit over 4 hours | 254K GP | 172K GP |
Test month: 21 July to 15 August 2026, 312 starting times, 2 hours apart, after the 2% tax. We assumed you could get at most 1 in 4 of the items that traded at each price. Our earlier posts used a different test month, so their numbers differ a little.
Why waiting pays
Prices on the Grand Exchange bounce up and down all the time, even within a few minutes. A sale that hasn’t sold yet usually just needs a buyer to come along.
Our earlier tests held each sale for 4 hours, then sold what was left at the market price. That last step sold cheap. The new rule waits for a buyer instead. In our tests, only about 1 in 100 trades still had items left to sell a day later.
There was a bigger problem in Trader itself. Our tests didn’t include Trader’s own advice for slow sales. Trader told you to lower a sale whenever it hadn’t sold for 3 minutes, down to wherever the market was right then. So it kept selling at the low point of each bounce. If you followed every one of those prompts, the same month made only about 55K GP per 4 hours with a 10M budget. If you often left your sales alone, you were closer to our earlier numbers.
What changes in Trader
When a sale hasn’t sold yet, Trader now says “Your sell offer is running” and asks you to leave it listed. If it still hasn’t sold after 8 hours, Trader suggests a new price:
- If you’d still make money, the new price is the current market price, but never lower than what you paid after tax (your break-even).
- If your sale is already at break-even, Trader can suggest the current market price, even if it’s lower. It tells you how much you’d lose first.
- If your price would lose money and the market now pays more, Trader suggests the higher price right away.
The 8 hours count from when you listed the sale, or from when Trader first saw it. If you change the price, the count starts again.
Ideas we tested and didn’t ship
We also tested four ideas for how Trader picks trades. These included ranking trades by their track record, and letting through trades with smaller profits. None made more money than how Trader picks today, so Trader picks trades the same way it did before. We only change what our tests show works.
What to keep in mind
- Your GP stays in a sale longer. With 10M, the test kept about twice as much GP waiting in sales as our earlier tests.
- Sales keep running while you’re logged out, so you don’t need to watch them.
- These numbers come from testing on past trades. They’re a guide, not a promise.
- We never trade for you. You place every offer yourself, in the game.
How we tested
We built the rule using trades from 15 September to 8 October 2026. Before we looked at the test month, we wrote down the rule and what would count as a win. Then we ran the test once, and the rule passed every check.
Trader can’t see when you bought an item, only when your sale was listed. So Trader counts the 8 hours per sale, a small change from the rule we tested. It did slightly better than the tested rule, so the table above shows the version Trader uses.
We followed every trade Trader picked, every 2 hours, using real prices and trading volume. We assumed you could get at most 1 in 4 of the items that traded at each price. When we assumed only 1 in 10, the new rule still did far better: 176K GP with a 10M budget, against 79K for our earlier tests.
What’s next
Buy offers are next. Early tests suggest buys gain from patience too, but one check didn’t meet the bar we set. We’ll test it again on new October trades before we change anything. We’re also checking every day whether the Chance we show matches what really happens.